Safe Transport in the Quantum Realm

Nation states are racing to develop quantum computers with unimaginable computing power. What does this mean for the security of transport systems?

In previous posts I set out the emerging cyber security risk for different transport modes. In this post I’ll be taking a look at one particular threat, Quantum computing, and the challenge it sets for rethinking our ever accelerating race towards digitisation, interconnectivity and automation.

What is ‘Quantum Computing'?

That is a good question. Although Quantum theory has been around for 100 years, the whole subject is still riddled with mystery and remains one which very few people understand. Fantastical things happen at the sub-atomic level of the world, like “quantum entanglement.” These effects are now being leveraged to make a literal quantum leap in the power of computers. Doing my best to very quickly explain: traditional computers use high and low voltage bits (‘1’ and ‘0’), to hold information and perform sequenced calculation. Quantum computers instead use ‘Qubits,’ which store information in the spin of electrons. The states of a Qubit are ‘1’, ‘0’, and ‘both 1 and 0.’ This relates to a principle called “superposition” - any Qubit is simultaneously in all three of these states at the same time, with different degrees of probability. If you find this confusing, you’re not alone. Remember, it took geniuses like Albert Einstein and Niels Bohr to formulate this stuff.

I think of the basics of quantum computing like this: a ‘bit’ is like tying a piece of string to your finger to remember something. It provides a single piece of information. With Qubits you move to having an entire abacus of information stored on a single electron. Qubits are phenomenally efficient for certain sorts of calculations, undertaking analysis that the most modern supercomputers would take thousands of years to complete, in mere seconds.

The race to ‘Quantum Supremacy’

‘Quantum supremacy’ is the goal of demonstrating that a quantum computer can solve a problem that no classical computer can solve in any feasible amount of time. The experiment usually involves some obscure, abstract mathematical problem. There was a lot of press back in October 2019, when Google claimed to have become the first group to achieve it. Since then, the claims have mushroomed. China’s leading quantum research group says that it achieved Quantum Supremacy in December 2020. Russia has at least two technologies in development and has claimed that it will achieve the goal in under a year. North Korea has also touted its growing capability.

You’ll notice that all of these nations are ones I flagged in a previous post as being involved in state-backed cyber attack operations. The seemingly innocent technical challenge of Quantum Supremacy is in some ways analagous to the Russian and US battle to be the first to put a man on the moon in the 1960s. In both cases, a seemingly harmless scientific endeavor was actually closely linked to the rapid evolution of military capability.

You may well even be able to buy a quantum computer soon. New company Psiquantum, founded by four UK academics in the US, has just unveiled plans to develop the first commercially available quantum computer by 2025 backed by $215 million of venture capital funding.

So the big picture is that even if we don’t believe that quantum computing is with us today, we should be confident that it will be with us very soon.

But…what has this all got to do with Transport Safety?

Quantum computing is completely disruptive to cyber security. One critical issue is that classical computers are not at all efficient at breaking down a number into its prime number factors. This is precisely why prime factorisation is the basis of many common data cryptography approaches. But quantum computers can solve such problems fairly easily and would therefore eliminate the effectiveness of some of our most widespread web security controls (including Virtual Private Networks) overnight.

As I’ve already described, major transport modes are undergoing rapid digital transformation. Planes, trains and automobiles are increasingly controlled by centralised, networked computer systems. These systems are connected to broader data systems encompassing traffic movement and control, passenger information, and maintenance. The attack surface of transport systems is therefore getting broader and broader. At the same time, more and more of the key functions of the vehicle are being digitally automated. Quantum computing potentially opens a door from any breach straight into the core functionality of the vehicle. The risks are obvious.

Where can I find a quantum of solace?

As with any arms race, defences are evolving too. New quantum secure technologies and standards are being developed and implemented to deal with it. But this is likely to create a new legacy issue for vehicles and systems that were already playing catch up to the evolving cyber security threat. There is a need for risk-based review of how and when to adopt these new approaches, which requires active monitoring of the threat as it emerges.

But this issue throws up a more fundamental question: do we need to reconsider our indiscriminate race towards digitisation and interconectivity? For some, the answer seems to be a definitive ‘Yes’.

The 2015 cyber attack of the Ukraine electricity grid led to a blackout for 250,000 people. The US government reviewed this incident and concluded that:

The attack could have been worse if not for the fact that Ukraine relies on manual technology to operate its grid

As a result of this finding, the Securing Energy Infrastructure Act (SEIA) established a two-year pilot program to identify new classes of security vulnerabilities and to research and test solutions, including “analog and non-digital control systems.” The bill “seeks to build on this concept by studying ways to strategically use ‘retro’ technology.”

Digital systems should enhance - not subvert - transport technology. So maybe the answer is to really think hard before taking out all of our old hard-wired transport technologies and automating everything with software. Existing safety and security by design standards require both functional diversity and segregation. We need to apply these standards to the new challenges posed by quantum computing and other emerging technology.

The next issue

In the next issue I’ll be taking you through another of my ramblings on the safety of modern transportation. Please subscribe now so you don’t miss it.

Thanks for reading

I hope you enjoyed the this edition of Tech Safe Transport. If you did please share it with someone else who might. All views are my own and I reserve the right to change my opinion when the facts change (or even just when I think a bit harder). If you have any thoughts or comments please feel free to send me a message on Twitter. The web image is "A Wafer of the Latest D-Wave Quantum Computers" by jurvetson, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Many thanks again to my ever-discerning editor, Nicola Gray.