Safety in an Era of Accelerating Change
Technological and social change is accelerating. This is creating risks and opportunities. How should transport sectors react?
Change is accelerating
When tech guru Ray Kurzweil announced that by 2045, the world would reach a ‘singularity’ where sentient computers would trigger exponential change for all (in his book ‘The singularity is near’) there were many who dismissed him as a crackpot. But although he has been shown to be wrong on the timescales of many of his future predictions about life extension, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence, his long term vision was sound enough to see Google recruit him as its Director of Research. One area where his predictions are proving demonstrably correct is in the continued exponential growth in computing power.1
As a result of this relentless growth (and its effect on digital communications) the volume and quality of human interaction is also growing exponentially, driving further progress and change. So, that feeling that everything is in flux and that the world is increasingly unstable is not a trick of your mind, caused by months of lockdown. The pace of change really is accelerating.
Why is this so hard to believe?
It is easy to find people who dismiss the views of futurists like Kurzweil. Our brains are not wired to see or expect accelerating change. Daniel Kahaneman’s revelatory work, precis’d in his book ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’, highlights this as one of many weaknesses and flaws in our brains: as change in the past has been much more gradual we are not evolved to fully understand what is currently happening. Also, as change accelerates, the unpredictable becomes more likely. In this world, Nassim Taleb’s concept of ‘black swan’ events shows the fallibility of basing your predictions only on past experience. If you’ve only ever seen white swans, you won’t believe that black swans exist. But they do.
Accelerating change creates risk
Change is necessary and inevitable. But it also creates risk, particularly when it happens quickly. Rapidly moving technology, behaviour and cultural trends have real world impacts. In the investment world, recognition of this has led to strengthening measures to demonstrate that these risks are being managed (known as ESG (Environment Social and Governance). Any tendency or inclination to dismiss ESG concerns as alarmist or naive social activism seriously misunderstands the situation. I came across a good quote in the Financial Times on this point:
ESG is as much about risk management as it is about social activism. Any company which ignores ESG related ‘externalities’ is storing up potentially significant risks for the future
The most obvious example of this is the steadily rising concern around the inevitable risk from climate change. Although there is uncertainty about how and when risks will materialise, there is a growing recognition that coping with them will be the world’s critical challenge for generations to come. Another case in point is the massive and ongoing growth in cyber security risk, a topic which I have expounded on at length in previous posts. Anyone wanting a reminder of the critical strategic challenge on this latter point should do no more than investigate the recent Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, and the US government’s great difficulty in determining an appropriate response to it.
Creating opportunity for transport sectors
In the transportation sector, automotive is leading the way in using new technologies to adapt itself at a rapid pace. Tesla and other electric vehicle manufacturers are completely rethinking the design, operation and supply chain of vehicles. Cars are evolving to be like skateboards, with low slung, compact battery powered engines and computer systems that free up the space above the wheels for more innovative use. With legislation in place to eliminate use of diesel fuel across the world, we are on the cusp of a transformation. But one area where automotive will hit problems is with safety assurance. The transfer of responsibility for safety from the car driver to the system designer is a fundamental one, that upends the industry’s fundamental assumptions with practical, real world implications for legal and insurance sectors. If growing software complexity and rising cyber security threats are thrown into the mix here, its easy to see that there is a real practical hurdle for the sector to overcome. And there are challenges for the aviation sector too. The COVID pandemic has been a crippling blow for it, and attempts to recover will face a headwind of growing environmental concerns. Which takes me to the railways, where I have to confess a professional bias. The demise of rail has been predicted many times, in particular in the mid 20th century rise of the motor car but it has remained remarkably resilient. This is because it is an inherently efficient way of transporting large volumes of people and goods over long distances. This advantage will continue to serve it well as environmental concerns ramp up in the decades to come. The destination for the railways is already set to be one of decarbonisation: removal of diesel trains and gradual electrification of rail lines. The long-standing, centralised safety control of the railways also provides strong foundations to bring new technology in safely. This puts rail in a strong position to benefit from technologies developed and funded elsewhere. But rail has another key advantage, with regard to automation of services, that is easily overlooked. The movement of a train is significantly constrained by the rail it sits on. This makes the safe and efficient automated control of trains a much more tractable challenge than for more free-wheeling, roving vehicles.
The next issue
I hope you enjoyed the this edition of Tech Safe Transport which was based on presentations I did for the Australian Rail Industry Safety and Standards Board on 11th May 2021 and the National Freight Safety Group on 18th May 2021. In the next issue I’ll be taking you through another of my ramblings on the safety of modern transportation. Please subscribe now so you don’t miss it.
Thanks for reading
All views are my own and I reserve the right to change my opinion when the facts change (or even just when I think a bit harder). If you have any thoughts or comments please feel free to send me a message on Twitter.
The cover image is "Google Self-Driving Car" by smoothgroover22 and is licensed with CC BY-SA 2.0. Many thanks again to my ever-discerning editor, Nicola Gray.
Source: "Transcending Moore’s Law" by jurvetson is licensed with CC BY 2.0. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)